Thursday, February 07, 2013

The "sequester?"

Although I think a deal will be done to avert the March 1st "sequester," I do think the recovery is solidly in place enough, so the sequester, at worst will not harm the economy too much, maybe just causing a slight recession.......but some deficit reduction is really OK at this time to calm financial markets from worrying too much about the nation's deficit and outstanding debt.

As I judge the economy right now, there is plenty of cash around (booming stock and bond markets), more truly wealthy people, plus the economy is now solidly in the recovery mode, slow, but slow is good since more longer lasting. And, CA is currently BOOMING with the budget now forecast to be in surplus by 2014, the largest reduction in unemployment in 25 years, currently an oil boom in Bakersfield, the Facebook IPO, Tesla being Motor Trend Car of the Year, etc. And at about 12% of the nation, enough to lead the economy no matter what obstructionist politicians do. The BOOM is on…..maybe the greatest ever…..sure, there will be a bubble to be popped, but still much too early……as for bid-up RE prices in some areas, just a typical thing happening at the start of a boom. For those who think the middle and lower classes are being left out……true, but just a sign that there are so many more people left to keep the boom continuing, when they eventually benefit from the economy…….plus, booms always climb a wall of worry……the more I hear words like “crazy” and “insane” while things like employment, RE and stock prices are still well below highs, just makes me more confident. So, as far as any negative impact of the "sequester" or market worry about the possible sequester going into effect, I see it as just an opportunity to load up on undervalued stocks, stocks of great companies which have good balance sheets, pay good dividends and have a history of raising them each year......stocks, like INTC (Intel), MSFT (Microsoft) and some stocks I already hold and I think are undervalued like HAS (Hasbro), in particular, but any other which dips decently in price.

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