Tuesday, March 01, 2016

My Review of "The Gray Rhino"

3 out of 5 stars......

Gray rhino, like a black swan, is a metaphor, a black swan event being a totally unexpected tragic event, like the chance of seeing a black swan. Whereas, behind nearly every unexpected event are early warning signs. A gray rhino is a warning which could cause tragedy (if disturbed, could charge and kill). but if seen and not disturbed, but with proper reactions, can not be harmed or cause harm.

The author, Michele Wucker, here, looks at ways to spot "gray rhinos" and either avoid or minimize the effects of them, the key being to use long term planning and not just short term. Thus, in case some emergency hits, the reaction is not out of emotion, but reason.

"Gray rhino" examples like Enron and the recent Greek debt crisis are explored. Plus, current ones like climate change, large national debts, income inequality and worldwide slow economic growth rates are identified.

Important is to deal with the risk soon, not to ignore. Also, avoid groupthink. As for muddling/kicking the can, sometimes good and sometimes bad. And, humans are wired with an optimism bias, a priming bias (listening more to "experts" and an availability bias (influenced more by recent events). Plus, predictors are most often wrong when either extremely over or under confident. Whereas, predictions do tend to be better when extensively studied before making a prediction.

The term, "agnotology" is mentioned, being the existence of a culture of ignorance, slit is best consider a diversity of opinions, including those from women.

The book contains lots of ways to evaluate situations, so many that although I do recommend the book, some may find it confusing.