Saturday, December 29, 2012

Forget the "Fiscal-Cliff"

Forget the "Fiscal-Cliff." As I have been saying, the recovery had entered a self-sustaining phase several months ago when Housing bottomed and started up. Then, fairly recently, CA's recovery went into an accelerated mode, with CA's budget forecast to be in surplus in 2014 and CA's largest drop in unemployment in 25 years. And, with CA being 12% of the US population, CA can now lead the nation in the accelerated recovery. Well, now comes along a true signal of how powerful the CA accelerated recovery is......Bakersfield, once a significant oil town, is now booming, and with CA so good on environmental things, I think the "fracking," etc will be done in a responsibile manner, even innovating new such techniques for export elsewhere. And, with Bakersfield median home prices of about $130K, I can see a booming migration of people, businesses, schools, colleges, etc to the area.

Thursday, November 29, 2012

My Review of "The Knockoff Economy"

4 out of 5 stars........

The book makes the point that copying in many cases actually increases innovation, contrary to what some think that Intellectual Property (IP) must be protected always or else there will not be enough incentive (money) for people to make important new innovations. Sure, sometimes IP must be protected, but the author tries to show, quite well, that it is overused and in many cases restricts innovation, along with having other negative effects. From the book, I took note of the following.....

1. Fashion is an area with little IP protection and the copying thrives along with innovation and profits in the industry, and actually improves the whole industry. Copying is the way trends develop and the pioneer gains reputation in the process which can translate into even more for the pioneer, than if the original product was protected via copyright. And, really it is impossible to protect most things as just slight changes to a product can always be done defeating a copyright, anyway. Not to mention the costs of lawsuits, etc for the pioneer to try and protect something, in time,and money. Also, the speed of the copying hastens fashion cycles, making more innovation and profits- induced obsolescence..

2. As for morality, unlike stealing a car, stealing an idea still leaves the originator with the idea, plus also since someone else has the idea there is greater chance for innovation, improvement of the idea.....this brings up the term "piracy paradox."

3. Cuisine is another area, with little IP protection, which thrives because of the copying, encouraging many variations/innovations like the Korean taco - LA's Korean Tacos in a Truck - Kogi. The recipe can be copyrighted, but the "built food" can't because it is so easily changed in minute ways. Chefs can't protect food concoctions, but can the look and feel of a restaurant.

4. Comedy, also rife with stealing, but slightly different presentations are what makes comedy thrive even more. An example is Louis C.K and Dane Cook.

5. Football, also.....can't copyright plays, yet football thrives like never before. Plus, the originator still holds an advantage by being the first - even if another team copies the play, the team might not have the kinds of players best to execute it and would take years of drafting, trading players, new coaches, etc to match the originator's team.

6. The financial industry, also. Even with copying the originator, by reputation and lead time can gain advantages which others can never match.

7. The computer database industry, also. Can't copyright data, but the ways it can be organized. e.g. Lexis-Nexis,.Factiva.

8. The VCR actually created new industries, like video rental, also new revenue streams for the maker of films.

9. "Useful articles" is a benchmark in copyright law - a dress is useful, a painting is not therefore can copyright. Though, there are special cases, a dress which is more ornamental than functional might lead to special protection. A printed fabric is protected, but the cut and style aren't. Also "trade dress" is protected, the packaging for instance, but not necessarily the product inside. So, trademarks, brands and logos are protected and can increase the value of its products/services even if they are easily copied, in fact copying actually can increase the values.

10. Positional goods - those which create status, like trademarks, logos.

11. Also, copying can spur innovation, what lawyers call "derivative works," tweaking of the original.

12. Copying can also lower the consumer's knowledge costs, by seeing trends happen right before their eyes - also called "anchoring."

13. Social norms can protect IP better than laws sometimes, like with comedians, chefs, etc.

14. The book also discusses "first mover" advantages and disadvantages.

15. For music, can make exact copies, but can't reproduce the performance, live session/concert, etc, so the performance aspect is thriving even more despite the copying, etc. Also, some restaurants won't allow takeout or home delivery.

17. Open source software is discussed. Wikipedia more successful than Microsoft's Encarta. Linix operating system also has led to a new company, Redhat. Plus, creates competition to put pressure on Microsoft, etc to keep improving their products.

18. Fonts are also discussed, zillions of different ones, lots of copying and tweaking....plus, the usefulness test, can't print w/o them, so only certain ones can be protected, so creativity thrives, creating more and more fonts.

Anyway, the book does give one a better understanding of the effects of copying, which it seems more often than not increases creativity, innovation and overall prosperity. After reading it, I think my understanding of IP and its effects is better.

Wednesday, November 28, 2012

Nation's Economic Recovery Accelerating!

The recovery did reach, in my opinion, a self-sustaining mode, recently, led by housing which normally leads a recovery. What is new, is that now, it looks like the self-sustaining recovery has entered an acceleration phase, with the news that CA's recovery is now on solid footing, with the budget now forecast by independent sources to possibly have a surplus by 2014, plus recently released unemployment numbers showing the largest percentage decrease in over 25 years. CA has always been boom and bust, with the busts always coming back to all-time high economic highs. Since CA represents about 12% of the nation, it does look like CA will now accelerate the current slow recovery.

I am no fortune teller....I look at facts....and what is currently happening. The only thing I can see stopping this accelerated recovery is some unexpected catastrophic event......not already known risks like the "fiscal cliff, "Greece," "Gaza," etc.

Tuesday, October 30, 2012

My review of "Occupy World Street"

5 out of 5 Stars.....

This book is a response the Occupy Wall Street and other Occupy movements around the world, where the protestors know there is something wrong, the 1% vs the 99%, most people on the planet, but so far haven't come up with any comprehensive descriptions of the problems or possible solutions, because it is so complex. The author lays most of the blame on neo-liberal economics and related politics, beginning around 1980 with US president Reagan and Britian's Margaret Thatcher - basically complete free-trade and free movement of money with negligible government regulation, resulting in a transference of wealth from public hands and the poor and middle class, into the hands of the wealthy and well-connected. This all represented, in the US, along with, to a degree, Britain, which he calls "The Empire," where what has resulted in a corporatocracy, a form of fascism, where the political system is bought and paid for by large corporations where this capitalism seeks cheap labor and resources from around the world, all the while using up the planet's resources to the point where we are nearing a point of no return where the survival of the world's civilization is at stake unless we change this direction.

What the author claims is that we are going through a paradigm shift from Cartesian/Newtonian physics to Quantum physics at the world level, where the world is a living organism where it isn't "cause and effect" at the world view level, but everything is connected. He offers a possible solution, a Gaian society, led by some small nations and leaders including some wise elders from around the world, to work together with new organizations and local currencies replacing the WTO, IMF and World Bank to work toward a sustainable planet which will change the way we live from from one of greed and accumulating money and material things to one where there is more meaning to our lives.

The book is divided into 6 parts - Planet under siege, Drivers of Destruction, The Empire, New values/New beliefs, Toward a Gaian World Order, Getting There.

Among the things covered are...

1. Global warming (carbon footprint), extinction of species, genetic engineering a risk, antibiotic resistant bacteria, monoculture (industrial farming reduces crop rotation, etc).

2. Corporatocracy is a threat to our civilization because it is overloading our ecosystem as exhibited above, plus overpopulation.

3. Peak oil is mere decades away - tar sand oil and natural gas via fracking use more energy to produce, especially when clean-up costs are included.

4. Tainter's Theory - civilizations solve problems using greater complexity until they become so complex the are overwhelmed by it and collapse.

5. Currently, nations measure progress by GDP, but GDP includes negative things like building of prisons, disaster clean-ups, etc. A more accurate measure GPI (progress)which started declining about 30 years ago.

6. Greater consumption leads to speculative bubbles. Bhutan has a Gross National Happiness Index.

7. Gini Coefficient measures income disparity where societies have shifted to "Greed is good" philosophy which at high levels as it is now, always leads to social and health problems with people rebelling.

8. Beginning in the 80's banks migrated from low risk investments to high risk ones including derivatives, high leverage, Credit Default Swaps, naked derivatives, unrestricted capital flows allowed speculators to get money out of countries fast if bets went bad leaving countries to suffer, front-running to exacerbate trends, repeal of Glass-Steagall, etc.

In sum, a very good look into the problems we face, though the author's solution is more speculative, but a good way to get our discussions started, so we can head in a better direction than we are now going. So, a fine book, even for neo-liberal supporters so that they know what is brewing.

Friday, October 26, 2012

GDP up 2%

Economic news today is that the GDP increased 2% for the last quarter, compared to an estimated 1.8% and up from 1.3% in the last quarter. To me, it seems the economic recovery continues, slowly, but continues.

I think the Great Recession, despite being in recovery mode for about 3+ years, really ended a few months ago with Housing appearing to have bottomed. Housing generally leads an economy out of recession.

In addition, autos and light trucks are doing very well, further signaling a healthy economy.

Corporate investment is flat, but for now that is OK, as representative of unemployment which is a lagging indicator of economic recoveries.

As for the "fiscal cliff," which some think will start a new recession, I will be surprised if a recession begins because of that. I think the recovery is now pretty much in self-recovery mode, so now is the time to begin reducing the deficit, plus the fiscal cliff is really  a misnomer since not all effects from it happen right away, plus there will likely be some modifications made within the next few months.

There is also a concern about Bernanke leaving the Fed next year. I do think there is appropriate worry if he is replaced by someone who takes a different approach. Although I do think Bernanke was complicit in the Housing Bubble, I think he has been very good since the bubble burst and his QE's have been very important in capital formation by way of a rising stock market and strong Treasury bond market. A lot of capital AND debt was erased by the Great Recession financial collapse.

The stock market has been overdue for a correction and there usually is a year-end rally. And, the year after a presidential election is usually a time to be defensive, but the stock market is not in bubble territory, so any weakness is just an opportunity. History does show that the stock market does do better with a Dem president than with a GOP president and I see no reason for exception for the next four years. as of now.

Wednesday, October 24, 2012

My Review of "Too Much Magic"

4 out of 5 stars.....

The author, James Howard Kunstler, though he denies it, is a doom and gloomer. Though I don't subscribe to what he envisions, I do think there is credibility in it for a longer term than he sees, so it is definitely worth learning what he writes so the reader can better know what challenges are ahead for humanity which do require more serious policy decisions by the US than which are currently in place. Here's some of his thoughts in the book.

1. He sees a worse crisis than the crash of 2008.
2. We are already past peak oil and population overload.
3. Warnings - BP oil blowout, Fukoshima nuclear meltdown, lots of tornado's, hurricanes, floods, droughts, etc.
4. Time frame We've already entered the zone of middle-class dissolving and no consensus about what to do.
5. Jevon's paradox, Tainter's model - greater complexity and diminishing returns?
6. Something for nothing mentality/legalized gambling. Cheap fast food, happy motoring, air conditioning. Peak everything. Then came housing bust after 2005. Roman culture took centuries to wind down.
7. We had peak debt which leads to deflation/contraction which we will never emerge because less money for auto loans,etc. Lack of public funds to fix roads. Auto bailout money should have made car companies make railroad stuff since will need a betterrailroad system.
8. Entropy - beginning, middle, end with only one direction. "Too much magic/"complexity. Farewell to drive-in utopia, suburbia over.
9. After WWI - suburbia building boom, roaring 20's, impetus for bubble economy, 1929 crash, then after WWII suburbia boom continued..
10. Women's lib in 60's really just 2 workers needed to continue suburbia,run lives of families.
11. GOP he calls the party of stupidity, mostly in sunbelt - suburban sprawl complete with oil, air.cond. - future bleak - "rural idiocy." Total bailouts (incl international) = $77T.
12. Hopefully towns will be redeveloped - more compact/dense/inland since climate change will flood coastal areas. - skyscrapers will be obsolete because electricity costs will be too high. Since San Diego near Mexico, there will be a fight over the terrain. Unable to garden grain crops. "New Urban-ism" still car centric, too complex.
13. Thinks Ray Kurzweil's "Singularity" where technology will solve problems is the vision of a mad scientist - AI can't transcend biology, genetic engineering, virtual sex, eternal life, nanotech robots/nanobots in humans, elsewhere is nonsense. He has no idea of diminishing returns or the dark side of humans. Gaia Theory where Earth is a living organism is just a so-so theory.
14. Party politics began to decline in 60's. Clinton turned over the economy to WS, continued with GW Bush. WS went from 5% of the economy to 40% - repeal of Glass-Steagell - neo-liberal economics. Lobbyists dictated healthcare and regulations with Obama. GOP led wave of anti-intellectualism. We benefited from post WWII - Highway system, cheap gas, FDR programs -TVA, military bases/military middle class + a prosperity gospel in churches - "God rains money on the favored."
15. Reagan turned the US from largest creditor nation to largest debtor nation. Began the corporate takeover of America by WS.
16. After WWII the US was in charge - no competition for goods, lent countries money to buy goods, #1 in oil/energy - an empire. In 60's began to crumble. Reagan lucky - north sea, Mexican, USSR's oil. Clinton lucky - leveraged buyouts, but then US went from manufacturing to junk bond mess and the S+L mess. Then the housing bubble and derivatives - Brooksly Born warned, but government didn't listen. Peak oil, peak debt, peak banking.
17. Solar panel makers use 11% of silver supply. Wind and solar energy use rare earth minerals which are rare, radioactive, pollute and cause other problems. By 2100, sea level is predicted to rise 3-17 feet and temperatures 3-7 degrees F. Most critical effect of climate change is food scarcity. US will become balkanized because not every immigrant learns English and adopts culture. The space shuttle retired/science compromised because US is out of money.
18. The only thing complex societies haven't been able to do is contract which will be necessary.

So, the author is good at describing the path we are on, but I'm not big on fortune tellers - I doubt things will go exactly as he says. But, the bok is an interesting read and does describe well the sequence of major events and where they have led us and what future changes are. 

Sunday, October 21, 2012

Portfolio - "Update"

It's been awhile since I posted an update. It really hasn't changed too much, although I did exit Treasuries since I wanted to lock up profits and because the bond market is in bubble territory while better interest rates exist in the stock market with the kinds of stocks I own. Also, I am planning to enter the housing market, so I put the bond proceeds into cash/money market accounts also from locking in some stock profits, so also reducing some of my stock portfolio, while also managing it - Adding HAS and MDLZ. In the order of largest position to the least.......

HAS (Hasbro)
PG (Procter and Gamble)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
PEP (Pepsico)
SYY (Sysco)
KO (Coca Cola)
WAG (Walgreen)
GPC (Genuine Products)
MMM (3M)
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)
T (AT&T)
ADP (Automatc Data Processing)
MDLZ (Mondelez)

The stock portfolio represents about 20% of my net worth, Gold/Silver about 3%, Cash/MoneyMarket about 10%, and CDs (about 67%).