As a new president begins handling the economy, my take on where we stand now....
The US stock, bond and RE markets are near all time record highs, with low inflation, and about 8 years of economic expansion and the world's best economy at nearly full employment. Most importantly, this has been achieved through great innovation - the Cloud, Big Data, Mobility, Robotics, the Energy Revolution, etc. And, geopolitically, a minor amount of American casualties. Thus, a solid economy.
Unfinished business, so to speak, is large income inequality and a high number of underemployed workers. Plus, about $20T of national debt.
As it looks now, the new president offers reduced corporate income taxes including repatriation of foreign income, reduced personal income taxes, reduced corporate regulations, an infrastructure program, a protectionist trade policy, a restrictive immigration policy, repealing/replacing ACA, and cutting federal programs except the military
With nearly full employment and a proposed restrictive immigration policy, there will likely be a shortage of workers for any large, new infrastructure program. Already there is a shortage of low end agricultural and construction workers. It seems the biggest need for whatever slack there is in our workforce is for retraining many for the new, more technology advanced economy. Thus, no short term benefit can be expected from such a new infrastructure program. Plus, with our aging demographics, we should be facilitating greater immigration and legalizing not deporting illegal residents. On top of that, repealing/replacing ACA could throw our healthcare workforce, an important part of our growing workforce, into disarray. So, overall, a questionable worker program.
In conclusion, tax cuts and less regulation would likely stimulate the economy short term, but longer term, they are of questionable worth since there is no certainty how long or how much our economy can expand until the next recession, plus with such a large national debt, we are in terrible shape to handle the next recession. So, seems with a healthy economy, instead of continuing our slow and steady progress, we are introducing massive uncertainty, not to mention a major expected foreign policy reset.
