My Review of "Too Much Magic"

4 out of 5 stars.....

The author, James Howard Kunstler, though he denies it, is a doom and gloomer. Though I don't subscribe to what he envisions, I do think there is credibility in it for a longer term than he sees, so it is definitely worth learning what he writes so the reader can better know what challenges are ahead for humanity which do require more serious policy decisions by the US than which are currently in place. Here's some of his thoughts in the book.

1. He sees a worse crisis than the crash of 2008.
2. We are already past peak oil and population overload.
3. Warnings - BP oil blowout, Fukoshima nuclear meltdown, lots of tornado's, hurricanes, floods, droughts, etc.
4. Time frame We've already entered the zone of middle-class dissolving and no consensus about what to do.
5. Jevon's paradox, Tainter's model - greater complexity and diminishing returns?
6. Something for nothing mentality/legalized gambling. Cheap fast food, happy motoring, air conditioning. Peak everything. Then came housing bust after 2005. Roman culture took centuries to wind down.
7. We had peak debt which leads to deflation/contraction which we will never emerge because less money for auto loans,etc. Lack of public funds to fix roads. Auto bailout money should have made car companies make railroad stuff since will need a betterrailroad system.
8. Entropy - beginning, middle, end with only one direction. "Too much magic/"complexity. Farewell to drive-in utopia, suburbia over.
9. After WWI - suburbia building boom, roaring 20's, impetus for bubble economy, 1929 crash, then after WWII suburbia boom continued..
10. Women's lib in 60's really just 2 workers needed to continue suburbia,run lives of families.
11. GOP he calls the party of stupidity, mostly in sunbelt - suburban sprawl complete with oil, air.cond. - future bleak - "rural idiocy." Total bailouts (incl international) = $77T.
12. Hopefully towns will be redeveloped - more compact/dense/inland since climate change will flood coastal areas. - skyscrapers will be obsolete because electricity costs will be too high. Since San Diego near Mexico, there will be a fight over the terrain. Unable to garden grain crops. "New Urban-ism" still car centric, too complex.
13. Thinks Ray Kurzweil's "Singularity" where technology will solve problems is the vision of a mad scientist - AI can't transcend biology, genetic engineering, virtual sex, eternal life, nanotech robots/nanobots in humans, elsewhere is nonsense. He has no idea of diminishing returns or the dark side of humans. Gaia Theory where Earth is a living organism is just a so-so theory.
14. Party politics began to decline in 60's. Clinton turned over the economy to WS, continued with GW Bush. WS went from 5% of the economy to 40% - repeal of Glass-Steagell - neo-liberal economics. Lobbyists dictated healthcare and regulations with Obama. GOP led wave of anti-intellectualism. We benefited from post WWII - Highway system, cheap gas, FDR programs -TVA, military bases/military middle class + a prosperity gospel in churches - "God rains money on the favored."
15. Reagan turned the US from largest creditor nation to largest debtor nation. Began the corporate takeover of America by WS.
16. After WWII the US was in charge - no competition for goods, lent countries money to buy goods, #1 in oil/energy - an empire. In 60's began to crumble. Reagan lucky - north sea, Mexican, USSR's oil. Clinton lucky - leveraged buyouts, but then US went from manufacturing to junk bond mess and the S+L mess. Then the housing bubble and derivatives - Brooksly Born warned, but government didn't listen. Peak oil, peak debt, peak banking.
17. Solar panel makers use 11% of silver supply. Wind and solar energy use rare earth minerals which are rare, radioactive, pollute and cause other problems. By 2100, sea level is predicted to rise 3-17 feet and temperatures 3-7 degrees F. Most critical effect of climate change is food scarcity. US will become balkanized because not every immigrant learns English and adopts culture. The space shuttle retired/science compromised because US is out of money.
18. The only thing complex societies haven't been able to do is contract which will be necessary.

So, the author is good at describing the path we are on, but I'm not big on fortune tellers - I doubt things will go exactly as he says. But, the bok is an interesting read and does describe well the sequence of major events and where they have led us and what future changes are.