Sunday, August 22, 2010

The "Joseph Oppenheim Kicker Theory" to Investing

For everything in life, including investing, I always look for what I call a "kicker," something extra which increases the chances for success and/or reduces the chances for failure, or just adds something beyond the main goal(s). Let's say you are looking for a job. Maybe one pays less but is located where people come to vacation - with many fun things to do and great weather - I would say it has a kicker. Same with investing. Some investments protect against inflation, some against deflation, but there are also some which protect against both even if the don't offer bigger rewards. This "kicker" is really a built-in hedge or diversification. I like the word, kicker.
For instance, let's say I want an investment which will protect me against deflation, but in case I am wrong and the opposite happens, inflation, then I can also win. This would be different that just buying a hedge or diversifying. Hedging and diversifying are also important tools, however, if one can essentially find the equivalent already built into the investment or decision, that is a "kicker" and in my opinion makes for a better investment.  So, in the case of such an investment, like a higher rate long-term Certificate of Deposit (CD) would be a protection against deflation, however if the CD has a low or reasonable early withdrawal penalty, one could always easily exit the CD and open a new one with a higher rate at a minimal cost, if inflation happens and interest rates unexpectedly go up significantly.
Another example. when selecting a stock, first I look at it as I would in buying a business, essentially shares of a company I would like to own completely if I could. So, thinking along that line, I would want a businesss which would do well no matter what happens with the economy. That would lead me to a company providing some kind of low-priced staple or service which people need all the time.
Another example, I always recommend investing in quality assets, be they stocks, bonds, etc. Even though potential rewards might be less than with riskier assets, there is always a premium paid for quality and due to unforeseeable situations, it might be difficult to dispose of a non-quality asset. So, in such a case, I call quality a kicker. Another case, CDs come without paying a commission, again, a kicker. Same with buying a home, look for a kicker -like it can be also used as a vacation home, etc
Sure, some might want to speculate and thereby obtain a greater return if one is right, that is by taking greater risk, but that is where I separate a speculator from an investor and I only want to think of myself as an investor, that is building in some protection while not getting greedy. Greed is not good and speculation and greed seem to go hand in hand.

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