Friday, May 22, 2009

Comment on The Economy - "The Window", update

It now looks like the "Window" which had opened where it was OK for the US to issue more Treasury debt (see previous comments), is beginning to close, pursuant to the recent S&P cutting UK's debt rating outlook to negative. This has created a worry in the markets for a weakness on US currency and US Treasury debt. This is a signal that although the markets are still OK for US currency and debt as Moody's just reaffirmed its AAA rating for US debt, they could turn on a dime if market psychology turns from currently 'nervous' to 'panic'.

So, although it is still technically OK for the US to issue more debt or print dollars, since unemployment still appears to be worsening, especially with California voters rejecting 5 of the 6 budget propositions, and asset values (stock market, housing, etc) still depressed, it has to be careful since the dollar and debt markets have become decidedly nervous.

Probably the reason that the recent nervousness hasn't turned immediately into panic mode is because the recent stimulus measures by the Fed and Administration/Congress have actually been successful in stabilizing the banking system, stock market and also other depreciating markets like housing and commodities. Though, it is important to watch oil, as it has nearly doubled to the low 60s and gold is near its high.

No comments: