Saturday, April 11, 2009

Comment on the Economy - "Competitive Devaluation"

What is happening is a competitive currency devaluation, industrial countries trying to get an advantage over other industrial countries, by having weaker currencies so as to make their exports sell better and create/keep jobs. These countries are in effect trying desperately to export their own deflation to other countries. The greatest risk globally is an all-out massive deflationary economic collapse.

Luckily, at least for now, for the US, is that the world needs us to lead the global economy out of this mess, since we are the largest and most massive creator of demand for other countries exports. The rest of the world needs us, even developing/emerging countries which have commodity-based economies. Sure, a big risk is eventual high inflation for the US. However, fighting deflation is of utmost importance now - if we can't stop that - worse things will happen.

On the bright side - we have had modest success so far, and there is a real chance that we can head off the bad inflation as long as we do start generating jobs while at the same time restructuring our economy regarding energy, health care, science. and education, and set a plan for reducing deficit/debt. But, for now, trillions of US money/debt has been destroyed -asset prices - sure asset values aren't included in M1. M2, etc - but it is still money, albeit potential money, but nevertheless it takes away any near term risk of severe inflation. It is deflation which is the biggest risk.

There is nothing wrong with a fiat currency as long as a country has valid assets, albeit indirect ones, backing it - like a healthy and educated workforce, great universities, a solid physical infrastructure, and other assets which make it a desirable country to live, visit, invest, etc.

It's a big challenge, but so far indicators show some good signs. And, anyone who understands behavioral economics, understands that public support is critical in calming financial markets and generating investment. And, right now, it is clear there is general public support, the people, in the US and around the world. The only real exceptions are the extremists, both on the Left and the Right, but so far moderates are in charge and they represent the real solid majority.

By the way, the stock market is officially in a new bull market - having risen over 20% from its lows. Sure, there is no guarantee how long it will last - it could end next week, and surely is due for a correction, but it is an important leading indicator. Financial markets key off of such things.

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