Monday, January 19, 2009

Comment on the Economy - "The Window"

As this economic downturn continues, I think it is worth a comment about the recent, unexpected by most, dramatic drop in oil prices to as low as about $32/barrel, with other commodities also dropping significantly.

Plus, with the dramatic drop in RE prices and stock prices, much money, and debt, has been removed from circulation or debt burden or possible circulation or debt burden, in the near term. So, as the government is essentially printing money by the trllions of dollars in trying to stabilize the financial system, stimulate the economy, etc, we have been granted a "window" to allow the "printing of money and issuing debt" as long as it is wisely used - like for investment in our infrastructure, energy, education, healthcare, etc - things which will eventually return more than they cost plus create jobs as unemployment has been increasing significantly.

The stock market has already had about $7T vanish, and RE probably more if commercial RE is included. So, for now, the expansion of money and debt to the amount of even a few trillion dollars, I just don't see as inflationary or of imminent danger to our currency. Yes, we must also come up with a plan to begin paying down our budget deficits and the large national debt, but for now, we have a "window". Sure, some want to argue that asset values, like stock prices, home prices, etc aren't money because they aren't included in pure monetary statistics like M1, M2, etc, but that simply is not true.

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