I sold my Chevron (CVX) and added General Mills (GIS). My portfolio, ordered by largest position to smallest....
WBA (Walgreen)
PG (Procter and Gamble)
PEP (PepsiCo)
HAS (Hasbro)
GPC (Genuine Parts)
MMM (3M)
T (AT&T
VZ (Verizon)
MAT (Mattel)
KO (Coca Cola)
ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
K (Kellogg)
IBM (International Business Machines)
SYY (Sysco)
HPQ (Hewlett-Packard)
CAT (Caterpillar)
DPS (Dr. Pepper Snapple)
CDK (CDK Global)
GIS (General Mills)
HYH (Halyard Health)
6% GNMA (Government National Mortgage Association) Bonds
This portfolio represenents about 25% of my assets, about 16% is a home mortgage, about 3% precious metals and collectibles, and the rest are CDs.
Wednesday, March 08, 2017
Sunday, January 22, 2017
The New Economy
As a new president begins handling the economy, my take on where we stand now....
The US stock, bond and RE markets are near all time record highs, with low inflation, and about 8 years of economic expansion and the world's best economy at nearly full employment. Most importantly, this has been achieved through great innovation - the Cloud, Big Data, Mobility, Robotics, the Energy Revolution, etc. And, geopolitically, a minor amount of American casualties. Thus, a solid economy.
Unfinished business, so to speak, is large income inequality and a high number of underemployed workers. Plus, about $20T of national debt.
As it looks now, the new president offers reduced corporate income taxes including repatriation of foreign income, reduced personal income taxes, reduced corporate regulations, an infrastructure program, a protectionist trade policy, a restrictive immigration policy, repealing/replacing ACA, and cutting federal programs except the military
With nearly full employment and a proposed restrictive immigration policy, there will likely be a shortage of workers for any large, new infrastructure program. Already there is a shortage of low end agricultural and construction workers. It seems the biggest need for whatever slack there is in our workforce is for retraining many for the new, more technology advanced economy. Thus, no short term benefit can be expected from such a new infrastructure program. Plus, with our aging demographics, we should be facilitating greater immigration and legalizing not deporting illegal residents. On top of that, repealing/replacing ACA could throw our healthcare workforce, an important part of our growing workforce, into disarray. So, overall, a questionable worker program.
In conclusion, tax cuts and less regulation would likely stimulate the economy short term, but longer term, they are of questionable worth since there is no certainty how long or how much our economy can expand until the next recession, plus with such a large national debt, we are in terrible shape to handle the next recession. So, seems with a healthy economy, instead of continuing our slow and steady progress, we are introducing massive uncertainty, not to mention a major expected foreign policy reset.
The US stock, bond and RE markets are near all time record highs, with low inflation, and about 8 years of economic expansion and the world's best economy at nearly full employment. Most importantly, this has been achieved through great innovation - the Cloud, Big Data, Mobility, Robotics, the Energy Revolution, etc. And, geopolitically, a minor amount of American casualties. Thus, a solid economy.
Unfinished business, so to speak, is large income inequality and a high number of underemployed workers. Plus, about $20T of national debt.
As it looks now, the new president offers reduced corporate income taxes including repatriation of foreign income, reduced personal income taxes, reduced corporate regulations, an infrastructure program, a protectionist trade policy, a restrictive immigration policy, repealing/replacing ACA, and cutting federal programs except the military
With nearly full employment and a proposed restrictive immigration policy, there will likely be a shortage of workers for any large, new infrastructure program. Already there is a shortage of low end agricultural and construction workers. It seems the biggest need for whatever slack there is in our workforce is for retraining many for the new, more technology advanced economy. Thus, no short term benefit can be expected from such a new infrastructure program. Plus, with our aging demographics, we should be facilitating greater immigration and legalizing not deporting illegal residents. On top of that, repealing/replacing ACA could throw our healthcare workforce, an important part of our growing workforce, into disarray. So, overall, a questionable worker program.
In conclusion, tax cuts and less regulation would likely stimulate the economy short term, but longer term, they are of questionable worth since there is no certainty how long or how much our economy can expand until the next recession, plus with such a large national debt, we are in terrible shape to handle the next recession. So, seems with a healthy economy, instead of continuing our slow and steady progress, we are introducing massive uncertainty, not to mention a major expected foreign policy reset.
Saturday, August 06, 2016
My Review of "The Fix"
4 out of 5 stars.
The book, by Jonathan Tepperman, excellently looks into the world situation, as many describe as hopeless, but sees many examples of extraordinary success in tackling big problems and presents them as ways which might also be used elsewhere. The common denominator of the successes is using pragmatism, not looking for perfection, but moving positively.
First, he sees the Terrible Ten problems being income inequality, immigration, corruption, Islamic extremism, civil war, the resource curse, energy, the middle income trap, gridlock I, and gridlock II.
As for possible improvements, I will cover these.....
Brazil's poverty.
Rather than lots of social programs, Lula introduced Bolsa Familia, just giving poor families cash with certain rules, like having the kids attend school so that future generations will have greater chances for success in addition to making the parents better consumers. And being cheaper for the government. Basically combining left wing goals with right wing, Milton Friedman economics......pragmatism.
Canada's need for more people, but white resistance, even from existing minorities.
So, rather than an incremental approach to immigration, mass immigration with strict vetting for those most likely to help the economy, resulting in a true multicultural nation. And with strong government support for multiculturalism, it made the nation more Canadian, not less.
Mexican gridlock.
Since the winning party had no majority, it created a plan to have all three major parties participate.
America's shale revolution
It really could only happen in the US because of such things like its bankruptcy laws which encourage risk taking, RE laws which sometimes allow residential land owners also mineral rights thus encouraging investment returns for average people, Wall Street lending/investment, environmental costs effectively managed, lesser population density than Europe, etc.
Other topics include Rwanda's overcoming its genocidal past, Indonesia overcoming terrorism, Singapore overcoming corruption and lack of natural resources and Botswana overcoming conflicts over new diamond riches.
Sure, it takes special situations, like good leaders or just good luck, but all counties or governments could gain insights from the book, hence I recommend it.
The book, by Jonathan Tepperman, excellently looks into the world situation, as many describe as hopeless, but sees many examples of extraordinary success in tackling big problems and presents them as ways which might also be used elsewhere. The common denominator of the successes is using pragmatism, not looking for perfection, but moving positively.
First, he sees the Terrible Ten problems being income inequality, immigration, corruption, Islamic extremism, civil war, the resource curse, energy, the middle income trap, gridlock I, and gridlock II.
As for possible improvements, I will cover these.....
Brazil's poverty.
Rather than lots of social programs, Lula introduced Bolsa Familia, just giving poor families cash with certain rules, like having the kids attend school so that future generations will have greater chances for success in addition to making the parents better consumers. And being cheaper for the government. Basically combining left wing goals with right wing, Milton Friedman economics......pragmatism.
Canada's need for more people, but white resistance, even from existing minorities.
So, rather than an incremental approach to immigration, mass immigration with strict vetting for those most likely to help the economy, resulting in a true multicultural nation. And with strong government support for multiculturalism, it made the nation more Canadian, not less.
Mexican gridlock.
Since the winning party had no majority, it created a plan to have all three major parties participate.
America's shale revolution
It really could only happen in the US because of such things like its bankruptcy laws which encourage risk taking, RE laws which sometimes allow residential land owners also mineral rights thus encouraging investment returns for average people, Wall Street lending/investment, environmental costs effectively managed, lesser population density than Europe, etc.
Other topics include Rwanda's overcoming its genocidal past, Indonesia overcoming terrorism, Singapore overcoming corruption and lack of natural resources and Botswana overcoming conflicts over new diamond riches.
Sure, it takes special situations, like good leaders or just good luck, but all counties or governments could gain insights from the book, hence I recommend it.
Thursday, July 21, 2016
My Review of "California Comeback"
California Comeback
4 out of 5 stars.....
The author, Narda Zacchino, is well-qualified to analyze what is happening in California, both by growing up and having a long, distinguished journalism career in California.
And I, having lived in California since 1973, think she has done a fine job in concluding that this is not just a comeback, but as her subtitle states, a model for the nation.
The book starts with the California Dream beginning with the 1849 Gold Rush and the hope for anyone striking instant wealth, but just story-like until 1963 when CA overtook NY as the most populous state, signaling the Eastern elite better take notice. Governor Pat Brown, inspired by FDR's New Deal, basically had brought about a CA New Deal,
Then CA turns Right, the Reagan Revolution, all leading up to the 2008 crash, where CA was ridiculed.
Enter Jerry Brown, Pat's son, as governor in 2011. Having been governor from 1975 to 1983, plus having served in many positions like Secretary of State, Attorney General and Oakland mayor. Always socially liberal and fiscally conservative, plus with such experience, pragmatic, he set CA on a remarkable path, just passing France as the world's 6th largest economy and distancing itself from the previously heralded Texas model.
The book covers many more details and history, such that I do recommend the book.
Saturday, July 09, 2016
Negative Interest Rates
Negative interest rates spreading around the world are a result of globalization and technology, a unique combination in history, resulting in powerful deflationary effects.
But, rather than the deflationary effects being all bad, not only are many good because of increased productivity, but even many of the bad like reduced income in nations or localities with inefficient economies, can improve efficiencies by investing in things like education, healthcare, technology and infrastructure.
This is a unique time in history in that because of low or negative interest rates, such investments are a no brainer for wise economies.
As for misappropriation of capital, that is possible whatever interest rates are. The US housing bubble behind the 2008 crash was mostly due too poor lending standards and lax regulation on complex new securities and derivatives. Now, Denmark is mitigating a housing bubble by restricting foreign money into Danish housing and other restrictions/regulations.
The resultant large income inequality is an opportunity to redistribute some of the wealth for investments mentioned above, including increasing minimum wages or earned income tax credits. This even helps the wealthy long term.
But, rather than the deflationary effects being all bad, not only are many good because of increased productivity, but even many of the bad like reduced income in nations or localities with inefficient economies, can improve efficiencies by investing in things like education, healthcare, technology and infrastructure.
This is a unique time in history in that because of low or negative interest rates, such investments are a no brainer for wise economies.
As for misappropriation of capital, that is possible whatever interest rates are. The US housing bubble behind the 2008 crash was mostly due too poor lending standards and lax regulation on complex new securities and derivatives. Now, Denmark is mitigating a housing bubble by restricting foreign money into Danish housing and other restrictions/regulations.
The resultant large income inequality is an opportunity to redistribute some of the wealth for investments mentioned above, including increasing minimum wages or earned income tax credits. This even helps the wealthy long term.
Friday, June 17, 2016
The Economy
The US Economy
The US economy is doing fine. Financial crashes take longer to recover from, than cyclical recessions. The faster 1980's recovery was not preceded by a financial crash.
We have had the longest consecutive months of job growth in history, with both unemployment and underemployment about 1/2 than before the recovery began. And inflation is contained, while energy costs and borrowing costs are at bargain levels. And wages are starting to increase. We have the world's best economy.
As for presidential candidates blaming trade deals for less well-paying jobs, they are wrong. We are in the middle of the latest industrial revolution, brought on by globalization and technology. It's called progress.
There are plenty of high-paying jobs available, plus, part of this new industrial revolution is an Enterpreneurial Age. Other than professional jobs (doctors, lawyers, even blue collar ones like electricians, etc), starting/investing in businesses is now easier and more lucrative than ever.
Plus, government sponsored infrastructure jobs, with interest rates at historically low interest rates, are an easy way to good jobs and affordable higher education.
As for the "disappearing middle class," that is just misreading economic history. 1950-1970 was an aberration, the result of post ww2 industrial world hegemony.
1970-mid 1980s was both a readjustment of our industry brought on by Japan beating us with manufacturing. Plus, inflation brought on mostly by the 1973 Arab oil embargo.
1990-present started the new Renaissance, the end of the Cold War, globalization and the digital revolution, together meant a growing world prosperity, but our middle class struggling because of foreign competition. Meanwhile, higher wage people in the US grew from about 14% in 1971 to 21%, resulting in record income inequality.
But, with rising wages, ACA, and improving education (Common Core, expanding community colleges, and online learning including MOOCs, and election of the right president, it is reasonable that a new US middle class will emerge.
The US economy is doing fine. Financial crashes take longer to recover from, than cyclical recessions. The faster 1980's recovery was not preceded by a financial crash.
We have had the longest consecutive months of job growth in history, with both unemployment and underemployment about 1/2 than before the recovery began. And inflation is contained, while energy costs and borrowing costs are at bargain levels. And wages are starting to increase. We have the world's best economy.
As for presidential candidates blaming trade deals for less well-paying jobs, they are wrong. We are in the middle of the latest industrial revolution, brought on by globalization and technology. It's called progress.
There are plenty of high-paying jobs available, plus, part of this new industrial revolution is an Enterpreneurial Age. Other than professional jobs (doctors, lawyers, even blue collar ones like electricians, etc), starting/investing in businesses is now easier and more lucrative than ever.
Plus, government sponsored infrastructure jobs, with interest rates at historically low interest rates, are an easy way to good jobs and affordable higher education.
As for the "disappearing middle class," that is just misreading economic history. 1950-1970 was an aberration, the result of post ww2 industrial world hegemony.
1970-mid 1980s was both a readjustment of our industry brought on by Japan beating us with manufacturing. Plus, inflation brought on mostly by the 1973 Arab oil embargo.
1990-present started the new Renaissance, the end of the Cold War, globalization and the digital revolution, together meant a growing world prosperity, but our middle class struggling because of foreign competition. Meanwhile, higher wage people in the US grew from about 14% in 1971 to 21%, resulting in record income inequality.
But, with rising wages, ACA, and improving education (Common Core, expanding community colleges, and online learning including MOOCs, and election of the right president, it is reasonable that a new US middle class will emerge.
Saturday, May 28, 2016
My Review of "Age of Discovery"
5 out of 5 stars.....
A must read! The authors, Ian Goldin and Chris Kutarna, brilliantly describe in detail how we are in a new Renaissance, starting in 1990, much like the original one of 1450-1550, initially centered around Florence and Venice, Italy.
A Renaissance, because it affects things worldwide, even seeing parallels with Gutenberg and Zuckerberg, both the printing press and digitization freeing speech. And Columbus discovering the new world with the falling of the Berlin Wall, spreading culture.
This is the most prosperous time in history (% above poverty), literate (estimated more alive today with college degrees than all before 1980), longest average life expectancy, most peaceful (% dying from war), due mostly from spreading of democracy and trade, etc.
And with both come great income inequality and great resistance from established thoughts, seeing parallels between Copernicus' heliocentric proof and today's scientists' proof of climate change. And back then, the Inquisition, now al Qaeda and ISIS, also here in the US, religion based resistance to same sex marriage, transgender civil rights and Planned Parenthood.
So, with all these advancements, come massive job losses and other distresses. The book even uses the Renaissance's Michelangelo's sculpture of David as both an example and metaphor for the advanced skills of a Renaissance versus the dullard brutish Golliath, culminating in our choices now, which will we choose.
The book goes into how there has been a paradigm shift from cause and effect to quantum superposition. Also, nanotechnology and its future are mentioned. Complexity is covered, how it advanced finance, yet also brought new risks.
Etc,etc.
I strongly recommend the book.
Sunday, May 01, 2016
My Review of "5 Easy Theses"
What differentiates this from just being a very good book to what I think is an excellent one, is the background of the author, James M. Stone. Not only does he have an excellent financial academic start, but then in high level government positions, to starting and managing a decent size financial (insurance) company. So, a well diversified background to write about the challenges America must face, all depending heavily on understanding finance.
He sees 5 main areas to tackle. Following each are some items covered.
1. Fiscal Balance
Fix Social Security (adjust for life expectancy), Medicare (too generous) and Government pensions (defined contribution and matches for new enrollees), eliminate home mortgage interest tax deduction, eliminate corporation debt interest tax deduction.
2. Inequality
Both income and wealth distribution need to be addressed, in tax law especially looking at tax dodging by the wealthy and corporations via trusts, etc, also favoring long term investing and reducing speculating. The author also favors an annual tax on unrealized capital gains and also repealing the "step-up" cost basis for inherited assets.
3. Education
More money into poor areas, more use of charter schools and more vocational education - better tracking of kids, also a national service program, increased early childhood education, longer school hours.
4. Healthcare
Lots of changes here - drug negotiating and other things plus a single negotiator, tackle end of life care, single payer and regulator, reduce excessive testing, reduce overuse of specialist doctors, salary more doctors, more use of specialized nurses and physician assistants.
5. Financial Reform
Break up big banks - basically incentivize them to break up, less bank leverage, more disclosure, less use of derivatives, hedge funds regulated like mutual funds, reduce finanialization of our economy - it reduces productivity.
I recommend the book.
He sees 5 main areas to tackle. Following each are some items covered.
1. Fiscal Balance
Fix Social Security (adjust for life expectancy), Medicare (too generous) and Government pensions (defined contribution and matches for new enrollees), eliminate home mortgage interest tax deduction, eliminate corporation debt interest tax deduction.
2. Inequality
Both income and wealth distribution need to be addressed, in tax law especially looking at tax dodging by the wealthy and corporations via trusts, etc, also favoring long term investing and reducing speculating. The author also favors an annual tax on unrealized capital gains and also repealing the "step-up" cost basis for inherited assets.
3. Education
More money into poor areas, more use of charter schools and more vocational education - better tracking of kids, also a national service program, increased early childhood education, longer school hours.
4. Healthcare
Lots of changes here - drug negotiating and other things plus a single negotiator, tackle end of life care, single payer and regulator, reduce excessive testing, reduce overuse of specialist doctors, salary more doctors, more use of specialized nurses and physician assistants.
5. Financial Reform
Break up big banks - basically incentivize them to break up, less bank leverage, more disclosure, less use of derivatives, hedge funds regulated like mutual funds, reduce finanialization of our economy - it reduces productivity.
I recommend the book.
Sunday, April 03, 2016
My Review of "Sleeping Giant"
5 out of 5 stars...despite her bias, she nails it.
Just like the far Right wrongfully demonizes the word, liberal (liberals are not against business, just want government to regulate it and provide a safety net of social programs), the far Left, epitomized by the author, demonizes the word, neoliberal (originally a balance between free market capitalism and regulation).
That said, the author, in this book, Sleeping Giant, Tamara Draut, I think correctly sees that the Great Recession recovery can only fully recover if it helps the new working class succeed, thus attacking the significant problem, income inequality, and addressing climate change and rebuilding our infrastructure as ways to quickly create high-paying jobs.
Plus, I think the book correctly identifies today's lowest paid working class jobs like fast food, other retail, and caregiver jobs as not unskilled, and thus deserving up to $15/hr + benefits, and sharing jobs having more worker protection. And unions do have a role here.
The book also I think, correctly sees the political split in the US as to how to tackle the hardships faced by the working and erstwhile middle classes.
Ever since the success of the 60's civil rights laws, non-college-educated White men began to feel competition from Black men, followed by competition from more women in the workforce pursuant to the feminist movement, then competition from immigration and the browning of America, culminating with the War on Terror and the Islamophobia which followed.
On the other side, college-educated White men including an overwhelmingly college-educated media sees this diversity being the beneficial evolving history of America.
All told, the author sees this new working class as her Sleeping Giant in powering this economy forward. And already, the Work for $15 and the Black Lives Matter movements seem to have begun raising minimum wages around the country.
I strongly recommend this book, for its timeliness and perceptiveness.
Just like the far Right wrongfully demonizes the word, liberal (liberals are not against business, just want government to regulate it and provide a safety net of social programs), the far Left, epitomized by the author, demonizes the word, neoliberal (originally a balance between free market capitalism and regulation).
That said, the author, in this book, Sleeping Giant, Tamara Draut, I think correctly sees that the Great Recession recovery can only fully recover if it helps the new working class succeed, thus attacking the significant problem, income inequality, and addressing climate change and rebuilding our infrastructure as ways to quickly create high-paying jobs.
Plus, I think the book correctly identifies today's lowest paid working class jobs like fast food, other retail, and caregiver jobs as not unskilled, and thus deserving up to $15/hr + benefits, and sharing jobs having more worker protection. And unions do have a role here.
The book also I think, correctly sees the political split in the US as to how to tackle the hardships faced by the working and erstwhile middle classes.
Ever since the success of the 60's civil rights laws, non-college-educated White men began to feel competition from Black men, followed by competition from more women in the workforce pursuant to the feminist movement, then competition from immigration and the browning of America, culminating with the War on Terror and the Islamophobia which followed.
On the other side, college-educated White men including an overwhelmingly college-educated media sees this diversity being the beneficial evolving history of America.
All told, the author sees this new working class as her Sleeping Giant in powering this economy forward. And already, the Work for $15 and the Black Lives Matter movements seem to have begun raising minimum wages around the country.
I strongly recommend this book, for its timeliness and perceptiveness.
Tuesday, March 01, 2016
My Review of "The Gray Rhino"
3 out of 5 stars......
Gray rhino, like a black swan, is a metaphor, a black swan event being a totally unexpected tragic event, like the chance of seeing a black swan. Whereas, behind nearly every unexpected event are early warning signs. A gray rhino is a warning which could cause tragedy (if disturbed, could charge and kill). but if seen and not disturbed, but with proper reactions, can not be harmed or cause harm.
The author, Michele Wucker, here, looks at ways to spot "gray rhinos" and either avoid or minimize the effects of them, the key being to use long term planning and not just short term. Thus, in case some emergency hits, the reaction is not out of emotion, but reason.
"Gray rhino" examples like Enron and the recent Greek debt crisis are explored. Plus, current ones like climate change, large national debts, income inequality and worldwide slow economic growth rates are identified.
Important is to deal with the risk soon, not to ignore. Also, avoid groupthink. As for muddling/kicking the can, sometimes good and sometimes bad. And, humans are wired with an optimism bias, a priming bias (listening more to "experts" and an availability bias (influenced more by recent events). Plus, predictors are most often wrong when either extremely over or under confident. Whereas, predictions do tend to be better when extensively studied before making a prediction.
The term, "agnotology" is mentioned, being the existence of a culture of ignorance, slit is best consider a diversity of opinions, including those from women.
The book contains lots of ways to evaluate situations, so many that although I do recommend the book, some may find it confusing.
Gray rhino, like a black swan, is a metaphor, a black swan event being a totally unexpected tragic event, like the chance of seeing a black swan. Whereas, behind nearly every unexpected event are early warning signs. A gray rhino is a warning which could cause tragedy (if disturbed, could charge and kill). but if seen and not disturbed, but with proper reactions, can not be harmed or cause harm.
The author, Michele Wucker, here, looks at ways to spot "gray rhinos" and either avoid or minimize the effects of them, the key being to use long term planning and not just short term. Thus, in case some emergency hits, the reaction is not out of emotion, but reason.
"Gray rhino" examples like Enron and the recent Greek debt crisis are explored. Plus, current ones like climate change, large national debts, income inequality and worldwide slow economic growth rates are identified.
Important is to deal with the risk soon, not to ignore. Also, avoid groupthink. As for muddling/kicking the can, sometimes good and sometimes bad. And, humans are wired with an optimism bias, a priming bias (listening more to "experts" and an availability bias (influenced more by recent events). Plus, predictors are most often wrong when either extremely over or under confident. Whereas, predictions do tend to be better when extensively studied before making a prediction.
The term, "agnotology" is mentioned, being the existence of a culture of ignorance, slit is best consider a diversity of opinions, including those from women.
The book contains lots of ways to evaluate situations, so many that although I do recommend the book, some may find it confusing.
Tuesday, February 09, 2016
Portfolio "Update"
I just added some CAT (Caterpillar). It is a Dividend Aristocrat, yielding 5% when I bought.
The portfolio, in order of biggest holding to least
WBA (Walgreen Boots Alliance)
PEP (Pepsi)
PG (Procter & Gamble)
MAT (Mattel)
The portfolio, in order of biggest holding to least
WBA (Walgreen Boots Alliance)
PEP (Pepsi)
PG (Procter & Gamble)
MAT (Mattel)
GPC (Genuine Parts)
HAS (Hasbro)
MMM (3M)
KO (Coca Cola)
HAS (Hasbro)
MMM (3M)
KO (Coca Cola)
T (AT&T)
ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
K (Kellogg)
VZ (Verizon)
SYY (Sysco)
VZ (Verizon)
SYY (Sysco)
CVX (Chevron)
HPQ (Hewlett Packard, Inc)
DPS (Dr. Pepper, Snapple)
CDK (CDK Global)
DPS (Dr. Pepper, Snapple)
CDK (CDK Global)
IBM (International Business Machines)
CAT (Caterpillar)
HYH (Halyard Health)
HYH (Halyard Health)
6% GNMA (Government National Mortgage Association) Bonds
Stocks make up abt 25% of my assets. Other assets are CDs, a home mortgage and about 2% precious metals..
Stocks make up abt 25% of my assets. Other assets are CDs, a home mortgage and about 2% precious metals..
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
My Review of "High-Level Investing for Dummies"
5 out of 5 stars....
High-Level Investing for Dummies, by Paul Mladjenovic, was just released in January, 2016 and the author wrote it in mid 2015, just when the current economy began hitting its headwinds. So, perfect timing to present his information and he does offer thoughts of how one might use some of his strategies to navigate this turbulence.
This book is not only excellent for experienced investors, but great timing and excellent as a reference, by providing links for additional information. Plus, he also recommends related books, magazines, brokers, etc. And, he presents names and strategies of great investors, past and present.
He identifies himself as a dividend growth investor, also liking ETFs and options, both in conservative and speculative ways. So, all bases are covered. Plus, no matter how experienced the reader is, the book is a great refresher, well appendix-ed and a great table of contents, for easy skipping around.
The author frequently reminds the reader, "the more you learn, the more you earn"
I heartily recommend this book
High-Level Investing for Dummies, by Paul Mladjenovic, was just released in January, 2016 and the author wrote it in mid 2015, just when the current economy began hitting its headwinds. So, perfect timing to present his information and he does offer thoughts of how one might use some of his strategies to navigate this turbulence.
This book is not only excellent for experienced investors, but great timing and excellent as a reference, by providing links for additional information. Plus, he also recommends related books, magazines, brokers, etc. And, he presents names and strategies of great investors, past and present.
He identifies himself as a dividend growth investor, also liking ETFs and options, both in conservative and speculative ways. So, all bases are covered. Plus, no matter how experienced the reader is, the book is a great refresher, well appendix-ed and a great table of contents, for easy skipping around.
The author frequently reminds the reader, "the more you learn, the more you earn"
I heartily recommend this book
Sunday, December 20, 2015
My Review of "X: The Experience When Business Meets Design ."
5 out of 5 stars....
X: The Experience When Business Meets Design takes the reader into a step by step process to understand how businesses should develop or transform their brand to equate to an experience, rather than just performing a function. Welcome to the Experience Economy. Coca Cola was one of the first to successfully embody it, by tailoring its ads not to just being a carbonated beverage, but associating it with fun and happiness. Think, too, of Disney taking one on a fantasy trip and Disneyland being the "happiest place on earth." The ultimate, as the book infers, being Steve Jobs and Apple, where art and technology intersect to bring customers to need functions they never before thought they needed or wanted.
It details an Experience Architecture when the customer shares the experience with the brand, Coke and Nike being examples. It is important to get into the user's point of view, to emphasize. It is also important to discard legacy philosophies and visualize the experience. We are now in a digital world and as Banksy might think, digital graffiti.
And the book explains that the customer experience is not linear, but a collection of moments
of truth, it calls ZMOT, FMOT, SMOT and UMOT....the bottom line being it is complicated
This complexity can create a Circle of Rife within a company, basically a soloing of opinions
The book quotes Leo Tolstoy, "Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one wants to change
himself," as wise to ponder to overcome this problem. So, the team must "think differently," then come up with a plan. Further, this plan should be broken into "grids." This visualization will lead to an omnichannel design, several points in grids leading to desining how to fully understand the customer. The challenge for a company, being to move from managing to designing, a collaborative process, the book breaks down as 3Ds, evolving to a human centered design, it calls UCX, user centered experience, and eventually gets to UX, human experience. It really is about people and p2p, people communicating with people. The book even brings up some futuristic films, specifically, Inception, where dreams of one person are implanted in another person to let that person build on the creativity of the previous person. This collaborative designing is similar, cross breeding of ideas. The author also advocates having an anthropologist on the team to ensure the design focuses on humans using the latest understandings.
So human centered, that the process should come up with a story, amplified visually with storyboards.
I recommend the book, an easy read for a reader just interested to learn what the Experience Economy is, a more intensive read for a reader wanting to implement it at their company.
X: The Experience When Business Meets Design takes the reader into a step by step process to understand how businesses should develop or transform their brand to equate to an experience, rather than just performing a function. Welcome to the Experience Economy. Coca Cola was one of the first to successfully embody it, by tailoring its ads not to just being a carbonated beverage, but associating it with fun and happiness. Think, too, of Disney taking one on a fantasy trip and Disneyland being the "happiest place on earth." The ultimate, as the book infers, being Steve Jobs and Apple, where art and technology intersect to bring customers to need functions they never before thought they needed or wanted.
It details an Experience Architecture when the customer shares the experience with the brand, Coke and Nike being examples. It is important to get into the user's point of view, to emphasize. It is also important to discard legacy philosophies and visualize the experience. We are now in a digital world and as Banksy might think, digital graffiti.
And the book explains that the customer experience is not linear, but a collection of moments
of truth, it calls ZMOT, FMOT, SMOT and UMOT....the bottom line being it is complicated
This complexity can create a Circle of Rife within a company, basically a soloing of opinions
The book quotes Leo Tolstoy, "Everyone thinks of changing the world, but no one wants to change
himself," as wise to ponder to overcome this problem. So, the team must "think differently," then come up with a plan. Further, this plan should be broken into "grids." This visualization will lead to an omnichannel design, several points in grids leading to desining how to fully understand the customer. The challenge for a company, being to move from managing to designing, a collaborative process, the book breaks down as 3Ds, evolving to a human centered design, it calls UCX, user centered experience, and eventually gets to UX, human experience. It really is about people and p2p, people communicating with people. The book even brings up some futuristic films, specifically, Inception, where dreams of one person are implanted in another person to let that person build on the creativity of the previous person. This collaborative designing is similar, cross breeding of ideas. The author also advocates having an anthropologist on the team to ensure the design focuses on humans using the latest understandings.
So human centered, that the process should come up with a story, amplified visually with storyboards.
I recommend the book, an easy read for a reader just interested to learn what the Experience Economy is, a more intensive read for a reader wanting to implement it at their company.
Sunday, December 06, 2015
My Review of "Inflection Point"
5 out of 5 stars....
This book discusses the intersection of Big Data, the Cloud and Mobility and how it represents not just a new trend or an incremental step in technology, but an "Inflection Point," such that it makes nearly all businesses obsolete unless they transform their IT immediately.
Basically, computers and software should be seen as a utility service, provided by another company that has as its core competency, providing and maintaining such systems for a reasonable periodic service fee. Then, the company should stick to its core competencies. so, no need for its own data center, computers, existing software and staff to manage updates.
Also part of this inflection point are Apps. The internet is now really a collection of applications, such that one could start a new business in a short time without prior knowledge, using Apps. So, incremental will not work now, since competition can now develop and improve super fast. A key word now is disintermediation. massive loss of jobs, basically because of elimination of middlemen.
This SaaS (software as a service) and the disintermediation resulting is amplified with the Internet of Things with machines communicating with machines via the Cloud, bypassing the need for additional jobs, and steps for ordinary humans outside the workplace.
The book also addresses how one can better evaluate stocks for their personal portfolio, considering the above. The popular metric of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) is worthless because now, this excludes the very things which could make the company uncompetitive in this new environment. Instead, ROIC (return on invested capital), is perhaps now the premier metric to be used, along with cash flow.
Also, the book covers MDM (mobile device management), very important to let company employees use their own mobile device, maybe only just partially subsidized by the company since it also can be used for personal stuff. The key being simplicity.
The book also mentions mobile middleware,which allows Apps to communicate with Apps.
The beauty of this book is how it ties together these very important concepts in such a neat way, making an easy and fast reading book. I heartily recommend it.
This book discusses the intersection of Big Data, the Cloud and Mobility and how it represents not just a new trend or an incremental step in technology, but an "Inflection Point," such that it makes nearly all businesses obsolete unless they transform their IT immediately.
Basically, computers and software should be seen as a utility service, provided by another company that has as its core competency, providing and maintaining such systems for a reasonable periodic service fee. Then, the company should stick to its core competencies. so, no need for its own data center, computers, existing software and staff to manage updates.
Also part of this inflection point are Apps. The internet is now really a collection of applications, such that one could start a new business in a short time without prior knowledge, using Apps. So, incremental will not work now, since competition can now develop and improve super fast. A key word now is disintermediation. massive loss of jobs, basically because of elimination of middlemen.
This SaaS (software as a service) and the disintermediation resulting is amplified with the Internet of Things with machines communicating with machines via the Cloud, bypassing the need for additional jobs, and steps for ordinary humans outside the workplace.
The book also addresses how one can better evaluate stocks for their personal portfolio, considering the above. The popular metric of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) is worthless because now, this excludes the very things which could make the company uncompetitive in this new environment. Instead, ROIC (return on invested capital), is perhaps now the premier metric to be used, along with cash flow.
Also, the book covers MDM (mobile device management), very important to let company employees use their own mobile device, maybe only just partially subsidized by the company since it also can be used for personal stuff. The key being simplicity.
The book also mentions mobile middleware,which allows Apps to communicate with Apps.
The beauty of this book is how it ties together these very important concepts in such a neat way, making an easy and fast reading book. I heartily recommend it.
Wednesday, November 25, 2015
Portfolio "Update"
I just added some IBM (International Business Machines) and HPQ (Hewlett Packard, Inc) to my porfolio. Both have high dividends and low PE's.
The portfolio, in order of biggest holding to least
WBA (Walgreen Boots Alliance)
PEP (Pepsi)
PG (Procter & Gamble)
The portfolio, in order of biggest holding to least
WBA (Walgreen Boots Alliance)
PEP (Pepsi)
PG (Procter & Gamble)
HAS (Hasbro)
GPC (Genuine Parts)
MAT (Mattel)
MMM (3M)
KO (Coca Cola)
MAT (Mattel)
MMM (3M)
KO (Coca Cola)
T (AT&T)
ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
K (Kellogg)
VZ (Verizon)
SYY (Sysco)
VZ (Verizon)
SYY (Sysco)
CVX (Chevron)
DPS (Dr. Pepper, Snapple)
CDK (CDK Global)
DPS (Dr. Pepper, Snapple)
CDK (CDK Global)
IBM (International Business Machines)
HYH (Halyard Health)
HYH (Halyard Health)
HPQ (Hewlett Packard, Inc)
6% GNMA (Government National Mortgage Association) Bonds
Stocks make up abt 25% of my assets. Other assets are CDs, a home mortgage and about 2% precious metals..
6% GNMA (Government National Mortgage Association) Bonds
Stocks make up abt 25% of my assets. Other assets are CDs, a home mortgage and about 2% precious metals..
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
My Review of "Civic Capitalism."
3 out of 5 stars.....
The authors and most of the contributors are British and this book focuses on Britain's problems post financial crisis 2008, while expanding it to be basically a manifesto against capitalism.
On almost every page, the book uses the words neoliberal or neoliberalism
The book presents an alternative, not an improvement. As such, it is better to use the book as a way to consider improvements. It offers worthy considerations such as sustainability and environmental improvements, as well as social improvements which would make for less greed and for a society less concerned with consumption.
It also mentions that this alternative should be global, but since the crisis some coordination has been achieved.
Further, in the US where the crisis began, better regulation has been achieved via Dodd-Frank, increased FDIC insurance, etc.
It should be remembered that the world is the most peaceful (% dying from war), prosperous (% above poverty), healthiest (highest life expectancy), educated, etc.in history. So, I recommend this book, only with the condition that it be read for ideas on how to improve our current economic system.
The authors and most of the contributors are British and this book focuses on Britain's problems post financial crisis 2008, while expanding it to be basically a manifesto against capitalism.
On almost every page, the book uses the words neoliberal or neoliberalism
The book presents an alternative, not an improvement. As such, it is better to use the book as a way to consider improvements. It offers worthy considerations such as sustainability and environmental improvements, as well as social improvements which would make for less greed and for a society less concerned with consumption.
It also mentions that this alternative should be global, but since the crisis some coordination has been achieved.
Further, in the US where the crisis began, better regulation has been achieved via Dodd-Frank, increased FDIC insurance, etc.
It should be remembered that the world is the most peaceful (% dying from war), prosperous (% above poverty), healthiest (highest life expectancy), educated, etc.in history. So, I recommend this book, only with the condition that it be read for ideas on how to improve our current economic system.
Tuesday, August 18, 2015
My Take on US Debt
US government debt is about 1 x GDP and total public and private debt is about 3 x GDP.
Interest rates are at historic lows with little chance of major inflation because of globalization and overwhelming deflationary forces. Plus, we have the most diversified economy, so benefit from such forces, long-term.
Interest rates are at historic lows with little chance of major inflation because of globalization and overwhelming deflationary forces. Plus, we have the most diversified economy, so benefit from such forces, long-term.
Also, there is
good and bad debt. Before the 2008 crash, we had too much bad debt, like
subprime and liar mortgage loans, financing two misguided wars with
debt and tax cuts for the rich, financed with debt.
Now, much of our debt is good debt....Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Plus, lending standards are much stronger than before the crash. Plus, even bad car debt is OK, because if defaulted, cars can easily be repossessed and resold, plus while still used they help the economy with maintenance costs. Also, student loan debt at least shows how dedicated Americans are in improving themselves and do make them more educated.
During bad times, it is best to expand debt, here to save the banking system and stimulus programs to create jobs and expand the economy.
During good times, it is best to begin paying down debt/restructuring debt laden programs. So, now, since the economy is healthy, best to start now with Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, etc. But, since the recovery has been uneven and interest rates are so low there is no need to overdue it and punish the lower classes. Plus, since lower classes spend most or all of their improved income/benefits from such programs, they recycle into the economy (multiplier effect), actually punishing them hurts the economy..
Now, much of our debt is good debt....Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Plus, lending standards are much stronger than before the crash. Plus, even bad car debt is OK, because if defaulted, cars can easily be repossessed and resold, plus while still used they help the economy with maintenance costs. Also, student loan debt at least shows how dedicated Americans are in improving themselves and do make them more educated.
During bad times, it is best to expand debt, here to save the banking system and stimulus programs to create jobs and expand the economy.
During good times, it is best to begin paying down debt/restructuring debt laden programs. So, now, since the economy is healthy, best to start now with Social Security, Medicaid, Medicare, etc. But, since the recovery has been uneven and interest rates are so low there is no need to overdue it and punish the lower classes. Plus, since lower classes spend most or all of their improved income/benefits from such programs, they recycle into the economy (multiplier effect), actually punishing them hurts the economy..
Tuesday, July 28, 2015
My Take on the Economy
The stock market is overdue for a correction This might be
it, but no one knows.
My approach is to only hold companies which
provide goods or services always in demand and pay a good dividend with a
history of raising it each year. So, I just see drops as opportunities
to buy more.
I see this as one of most remarkable economic times in US
history. US innovation has changed every industry on the planet,
resulting in the US having the strongest economy in the world, while
also bringing along other advanced economies which embrace innovation.
Recent slowness in the US economy is due to the strong
dollar, but that is good for the medium and long term, a resurgence of
the world reserve currency.
For the US, the strong dollar makes the cost of commodities cheaper, a bonanza.
So, this slowness, combined with great innovation and
needed new regulations, is consistent with a solid economic boom,
nothing like "trickle down" because it is combined with such bottom up
advances like ACA and historic creation of new jobs combined with rising
minimum wages, rising education standards and expansion of community
college opportunities. Plus, maybe the most remarkable catalyst being
the lowest interest rates in history.
Wednesday, June 24, 2015
Portfolio 'Update"
I just bought some Chevron (CVX) stock, since it had dropped and now pays about 4.3% dividend which is usually raised each year.
My portfolio, in order of largest holding to least....
WBA (Walgreen Boots Alliance)
PEP (Pepsi)
PG (Procter & Gamble)
My portfolio, in order of largest holding to least....
WBA (Walgreen Boots Alliance)
PEP (Pepsi)
PG (Procter & Gamble)
HAS (Hasbro)
GPC (Genuine Parts)
MAT (Mattel)
MMM (3M)
KO (Coca Cola)
MAT (Mattel)
MMM (3M)
KO (Coca Cola)
T (AT&T)
ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
K (Kellogg)
VZ (Verizon)
SYY (Sysco)
VZ (Verizon)
SYY (Sysco)
CVX (Chevron)
DPS (Dr. Pepper, Snapple)
CDK (CDK Global)
HYH (Halyard Health)
6% GNMA (Government National Mortgage Association) Bonds
Stocks make up abt 24% of my assets. Other assets are CDs, a home mortgage and about 2% precious metals..
DPS (Dr. Pepper, Snapple)
CDK (CDK Global)
HYH (Halyard Health)
6% GNMA (Government National Mortgage Association) Bonds
Stocks make up abt 24% of my assets. Other assets are CDs, a home mortgage and about 2% precious metals..
Tuesday, June 16, 2015
My Review of "Can Financial Markets be Controllrd"
4 out of 5 stars
The author, Howard Davies, says the financial markets can't be controlled, pursuant to the 2008 crash and its aftermath.
He says the roots being the financialization of our economy, basically our major industry, based on debt/leverage to generate such huge profits it attracted many of our brightest minds away from pursuing more fundamentally sound careers to help society, all hidden in such complexity, it was, and still is, impossible to control. Further, the complexity bred mostly short term strategies, leading to a dysfunctional financial system.
Also, misguided thinking led to thinking globalization and technology reduced risks, but just increased risks.
And Dodd-Frank, he says is too complex, and the EU too flawed, for him to have much confidence.
He does say globalization and technology has led to more income inequality, and so much debt in the US made it worse by inflating asset prices. And he says this has led to more booms and busts, creating an intrinsically fragile economy intentionally because of the revolving door between Wall Street and government.
Anyway, I do recommend the book despite what I see as an omission like the funding of two wars and tax cuts for the rich, financed by lots of debt, making handling the crisis harder. Also, despite his pessimism, some of the US regulation is an improvement and though formal coordinated international regulation has not been achieved, there is more coordination than before. But, the book does present a good discussion of the risks in our financial system.
The author, Howard Davies, says the financial markets can't be controlled, pursuant to the 2008 crash and its aftermath.
He says the roots being the financialization of our economy, basically our major industry, based on debt/leverage to generate such huge profits it attracted many of our brightest minds away from pursuing more fundamentally sound careers to help society, all hidden in such complexity, it was, and still is, impossible to control. Further, the complexity bred mostly short term strategies, leading to a dysfunctional financial system.
Also, misguided thinking led to thinking globalization and technology reduced risks, but just increased risks.
And Dodd-Frank, he says is too complex, and the EU too flawed, for him to have much confidence.
He does say globalization and technology has led to more income inequality, and so much debt in the US made it worse by inflating asset prices. And he says this has led to more booms and busts, creating an intrinsically fragile economy intentionally because of the revolving door between Wall Street and government.
Anyway, I do recommend the book despite what I see as an omission like the funding of two wars and tax cuts for the rich, financed by lots of debt, making handling the crisis harder. Also, despite his pessimism, some of the US regulation is an improvement and though formal coordinated international regulation has not been achieved, there is more coordination than before. But, the book does present a good discussion of the risks in our financial system.
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