Monday, April 08, 2013

Portfolio - "Update"

One CD of mine matured and I  bought some INTC stock with the proceeds, having also picked up some INTC recently. INTC's yield is about 4.3 %, a little better than the CD. Plus, with only a PE of about 10, it was pretty hard for me to pass up, especially since most other stocks I like have run up quite a bit in price this year. This is my stock portfolio, largest holding to least....

INTC (Intel)
WAG (Walgreen)
PEP (Pepsi)
PG (Procter & Gamble)
KO (Coca Cola)
GPC (Genuine Parts)
MMM (3M)
HAS (Hasbro)
ADP (Automatic Data Processing)
T (AT&T)
KMB (Kimberly Clark)
SYY (Sysco)
MSFT (Microsoft)
JNJ (Johnson & Johnson)

Stocks now make up about 18.5% of my assets, with my goal being about 25% as I route some of my cash flow to stocks, as situations present themselves.Other assets are mostly CDs and holding a home mortgage, also about 2% precious metals.

Sunday, April 07, 2013

My Review of "The Unfair Trade"

5 out of 5 stars......

The global economy changed everything and it is unfair. Money politics must be destroyed for democracy to flourish. Neo-liberal economics of a free economy is not free to all. Undervalued Chinese currency favored exporting over domestic consumerism....should be less saving in China and more saving in the US. Tea Party and OWS should create new institutions instead of attacking old ones. Nixon taking the US off the gold standard unshackled the FED all the way to today's QE's. Both gold and paper fail because international cooperation is needed. Repeal of Glass-Steagall. Breakup of USSR led the way for more neo-liberal, free-market economics. The great financial transfer of our age - China/Asian savings buying US assets (Treasuries). GWBush/Greenspan - debt/low interest rates led to housing bubble and creation of AAA junk sold all over the world. Euro was the bubble creating power of Europe alowing Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal,Iceland, etc to borrow at low interest rates.BRICs did well being smart, but commodity inflation hurt many poor like with the Arab Spring. Chimerica led to deflationary forces in the US. China's infrastructure all geared to manufacturing, Germany a moreefficient manufacture than the US because of its better infrastructure. Chinese economy flawed because too dependence on cheap labor. Problems will remain until Chinese become big consumers to lesson deflation in US.

W. Austrailia became wealthy because of mineral resources demanded by China - potential bubble? Race to the bottom - Mexico can't compete with China on manufacturing - so crime/murders rampant. Globalization makes regulating banks harder. Income disparity isn't as important as the disparity of the financial industry and the rest of the economy where "too big to fail" creates all kinds of unfair situations including income disparities.Lobbyists still the biggest problem keeping the financial industry in control. Iceland is a pretty good example how a runaway financial industry wrecked the country, but then Iceland was able to finally cut it down to size, so to speak.

Anyway, the Global economy has caused all kinds of distortions, leaving too many people behind and can only be corrected by proper control of the financial industry, including international agreements so that proper regulation can occur.

My Review of "Europe's Financial Crisis"

3 out of 5 stars....


This book is pretty good in describing the steps which led Europe to its current problems and juxtaposed America's handling of its financial mess which also became part of Europe's mess.

Anyway, the book does think pretty much all financial markets have been tampered with such that their future directions are more uncertain than usual. As for Europe, more planning for the Euro should have happened especially since there are significant problems remaining, mostly political. Weak nations can be bailed out, but it is doubtful politics will allow that, so probably too much austerity will still lead to real recovery being delayed. The author does think it would be wise if a few of the smaller/weaker nations left, but that still would leave Spain and Italy, two nations too large to leave but with much different politics than the strongest nations. So, it is hard to see things working out well in the foreseeable future.

So, a good book in laying out what has happened, but it doesn't seem to me there are any great revelations as to what might happen.

Saturday, April 06, 2013

My review of "Street Smarts"



4 out of 5 stars.....

Jim Rogers goes through much of his personal biography, growing up in Alabama, graduated from Yale, studying history, then worked on WS for awhile and got hooked on investing, then off to Oxford to learn more of the world, then got back to finance, hooking up with George Soros and the very successful Quantum hedge fund, all the while having a passion to travel the world and basically figure out things.

Anyway, he is convinced the US is in decline, as all great civilizations eventually do, basically because we are too much in debt...while it is China and Asia which will dominate. Beginning in 1999, he saw a bull market in commodities with US workers falling behind seeking white collar jobs, rather than getting into farming and commodity related businesses. NYC - hotels and airports don't compare to Asia.

He is critical of the 2008 crash, thinking we should have let all the banks, etc go bankrupt...that capitalism can't exist without bankruptcy.....creative destruction as Schumpeter said.

He thinks US education should make greater use of the Internet.............thinks our college system is in a bubble which won't last.

He does feel immigration is great and would prefer no borders. Throughout history the most profitable societies were open to the world.

He does think our federal government should make better use of the Internet and have politicians stay home mostly and vote from there....less contact with DC lobbyists, etc.

He advocates bringing all troops home, not taxing savings and investments, and a simpler tax code.

His key advice to any investor is to ignore him and concentrate on what you know best - everyone has something they know more about than most people.

Overall, a very good book, especially welcome because Rogers is a truly successful investor. That said, one should read the book with a critical eye.....maybe Rogers would understand the US better if he wasn't such a world traveler.....but, I can't say he's wrong...but, personally I do think the US is still unmatched in creativity, I do have more hope for the US than he does.